July 21st, 2009
QQ – You will flop one or more overcards without another queen on the board 31.1% of the time. If there are a lot of players already in the pot, you’re not going to knock anyone out by raising. If six players have already called, then they have a total of twelve cards among them. It’s very likely that’s there’s an ace and a king among those twelve cards, so I generally do not raise in late position with pocket queens. I like to limp in for one bet. If an ace or a king comes on the flop and there’s a bet, I can easily throw the hand away.
I want to emphasize that you’re not really playing against just the one player who bet. You’re playing against those twelve cards the others are holding. If you’re not sure you understand what I mean, try this quick and easy exercise:
Pull two queens from a full deck of cards. Shuffle the rest of the cards well, and then look at the first twelve cards off the top of the deck. Is there an ace or a king in those cards? I just performed this exercise twenty times and there was an ace or a king nineteen out of those twenty times. I don’t know if twenty trials is a large enough sample to be statistically valid, but it’s good enough for me, particularly since this nineteen out of twenty seems to coincide with my actual experiences in years of play. Kings and aces among these cards suggest that at least one of those players who just called may have an overcard to your queen.
JJ – You will get an overcard and no jack 47% of the time. For that reason, I usually like to see the flop as cheaply as possible, because I know that I’ll often be throwing it away often after the flop. There are two exceptions. If I’m in late position and only the blinds are in, I will raise to steal the blinds. If everyone has called and it’s raised, I will reraise to build a pot, since I have great drawing odds.
1010 – The best advice I can give you is to play this hand even more carefully than you play pocket jacks. You will get an overcard and no 10 60% of the time. If there’s no overcard on the flop, one will come on the turn or river 57% of the time. You usually have to flop another 10 or be drawing to the high end of a straight to have a good hand after the flop with pocket 10s.
99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22 -1 put all of these pairs in the same category because each one has an incredibly high probability of flopping an overcard without flopping a set. The lower your pocket pair is, the more all caveats apply, and the luckier you have to get on the flop. If you stay in, see the flop as cheaply as you can.
There’s no law that says you have to play the hand anyway. I routinely fold pocket 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s if it’s raised pre-flop and I respect the raiser. You can raise to steal the blinds in late position with these hands, but your decision to do so should depend on your ability to play and read your opponent after the flop, if he calls.sports betting
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July 21st, 2009
Not all of these hands are playable all the time from all positions. There are several factors that you have to consider when deciding whether to see the flop with your hand. I'm going to run down the list with some general advice about how to play each hand.
1. Pocket Pairs
AA – This is the best hand you can get before the flop. It's the hand that wins more often than any other hand, and it's the hand that wins the most money for you in the long run. Put another way, you could not do better than to have pocket aces every hand for the rest of your poker playing life. If you did, you wouldn't have to read the rest of this (or any other) poker book!
There are several ways to play pocket aces before the flop. Which strategy you choose depends on which goal you want to focus on. If you raise in early position, you will knock out most players, which will increase your chances of winning the hand. Since there will be only a few players in the hand, however, a raise in early position will also decrease the size of the final pot. If you are in late position, and a lot of players have already called, your raise will build a big pot, but the presence of so many players in the pot reduces your chances of winning the hand. It's a trade-off between small pot with a good chance of winning and a large pot with a reduced chance of winning the hand.
If you're in early position with pocket aces, you can also just call and hope that someone behind you will raise. Then you can backraise. You'll build a pot, and, if there are a few players between you and the raiser, you might knock someone out of the hand. This play builds the pot, possibly increases your chances of winning the hand, and gets some dead money in the pot. All of these benefits are very good for you.
KK – You can play pocket kings in almost the same way you play pocket aces, but you have to consider a few more things. Even though the odds are 19.5 to 1 against it, any other player who's raising could have pocket aces. There's also the dreaded ace overcard on the flop, which will come 22.5% of the time. For these reasons, if you're in late position with pocket kings, you might want to just limp in for one bet to see the flop. If you get an ace on the flop, it's easier to throw the hand away, since you have only one bet invested. Plus, if you flop another king or something else you really like, your strength will be very well disguised.
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